It’s time to evacuate – but how can tech help?

Key Takeaways
• Delays in evacuations are common, particularly in the face of wildfires, and can result from a lack of preparedness, misperceptions of risk, and insufficient communication.
• Wildfire evacuation bottlenecks are exacerbated by limited evacuation routes and rapid population growth in fire-prone areas.
• Computer simulations can help predict evacuation dynamics, identify risks, and assist in more effective planning and response during disasters.

When wildfires strike, time is critical, yet evacuations often take longer than anticipated, causing confusion, chaos, and unnecessary risks. Despite warnings, many individuals remain unprepared, which puts additional strain on emergency services and makes the evacuation process more difficult. As the frequency and severity of natural disasters increase due to climate change and urban expansion, it’s becoming increasingly important to reconsider how we respond to these threats. One promising solution to address evacuation delays is the use of computer simulations, which can offer vital insights into evacuation dynamics, identify potential bottlenecks, and ultimately help save lives.

Evacuations during wildfires are frequently delayed due to various factors, including lack of preparation, misjudgement of risk, and inadequate communication. For instance, during the Eaton Fire in California in January 2025, residents faced major delays in evacuating, dealing with traffic jams and unclear evacuation routes despite little notice. Similar delays have been observed in past wildfires, such as the 2009 Victoria bushfires in Australia, where survivors reported that many fatalities occurred among those who lacked an evacuation plan. The situation is worsened by increasing population growth in the wildland-urban interface—areas where urban development meets fire-prone regions—putting further strain on evacuation routes and complicating the process. Additionally, wildfires are spreading into areas that were historically less prone to such events, making evacuation challenges even more unpredictable.

As communities face growing disaster risks, technological solutions are playing an increasingly important role in disaster preparedness. One of the most promising advancements in this area is the development of computer simulations. These simulations allow emergency managers and researchers to model various evacuation scenarios, helping optimise response times and predict how people will behave during evacuations. The simulations are based on data from behavioural research and surveys, which allow scientists to create realistic models of how different communities might respond to fire threats. These models take into account factors such as household decision-making, traffic flow, and the timing of evacuation orders, providing emergency services with invaluable information to better coordinate responses and manage evacuations more effectively. By identifying potential congestion points and bottlenecks along evacuation routes, these simulations help fire managers prioritise resources and ensure evacuations proceed as smoothly and safely as possible.

Barriers to Effective Evacuations
The delays and complications experienced during wildfire evacuations are not solely the result of poor planning or limited resources. There are several factors that exacerbate evacuation times:

1. Lack of Preparedness
Many residents in wildfire-prone areas are aware of the risks, but translating that knowledge into concrete action remains a significant barrier. For example, while many people have heard of the importance of a “go bag,” containing essential items like medications and documents, few people actually have one ready when disaster strikes. As a result, when an evacuation order is given, many are caught unprepared, spending valuable time gathering supplies rather than leaving promptly.

2. Misperception of Risk
People’s perceptions of risk play a huge role in evacuation delays. When faced with an emergency alert, individuals might assess the situation based on limited visual cues, such as the level of smoke they see or their neighbours’ actions. If the threat doesn’t seem imminent, people might delay their evacuation, underestimating the dangers they face. Past experiences, especially those with less severe disasters, can reinforce these misperceptions.

3. Poor Communication
Effective communication is critical during emergencies, but many communities struggle with timely and clear evacuation messages. Messages like “Ready, Set, Go!” are meant to prompt specific actions, but they are only effective if residents understand them and trust the system. Delays in issuing evacuation orders or confusion over the meaning of the message can lead to fatal mistakes.

4. Limited Evacuation Routes
In many areas, especially those in the wildland-urban interface, there are simply not enough evacuation routes to handle a mass exodus of people. With limited exits, traffic jams can quickly form, preventing people from reaching safety and delaying the arrival of emergency responders. When the fire is rapidly approaching, every minute counts, and these bottlenecks can be life-threatening.

How Computer Models are Improving Evacuations
Researchers, including those at Boise State University, are developing advanced simulation tools to better understand and manage evacuations. These models use a range of data, such as surveys and behavioural studies, to predict how individuals and communities might respond in different scenarios. By simulating various evacuation conditions—such as the timing of fire outbreaks, the layout of evacuation routes, and the decisions made by evacuees—these models provide crucial insights that can improve real-time decision-making during disasters.

For example, simulations can predict where congestion might occur along evacuation routes, allowing emergency teams to focus resources in those areas and prevent traffic from becoming a barrier to safety. By understanding evacuation patterns, fire managers can also identify which neighbourhoods are likely to need more support or faster notification, ensuring that vulnerable populations are evacuated quickly and efficiently.

The research being conducted at Boise State, which involves surveying residents of wildfire-prone areas in Idaho and Oregon, helps create these models by collecting data on how people perceive wildfire risks and how prepared they are for evacuations. The results are then used to simulate evacuation timelines and identify possible issues, such as areas where traffic congestion could impede progress.

These simulations can also help communities recognise where they might need to make improvements, such as increasing the number of evacuation routes or refining the timing of evacuation orders. With better insights into potential risks, communities can make more informed decisions, improving overall disaster resilience.

Future Implications and Recommendations
Moving forward, the continued development and refinement of computer simulation models will be crucial in ensuring that evacuations are as quick and efficient as possible. These tools should be integrated into disaster planning at both the local and national levels, providing emergency teams with real-time data that can inform their decisions. Communities should also invest in education and preparedness campaigns that help individuals better understand the risks and actions they need to take.

Practical Advice for Communities
1. Develop and Practice Evacuation Plans: Ensure that all household members know what to do in the event of a wildfire. Have a go bag ready, and practice evacuation routes regularly.
2. Trust Emergency Alerts: Pay attention to official evacuation notices and act immediately, even if the threat doesn’t seem imminent.
3. Support Community Simulation Initiatives: Encourage local authorities to invest in and adopt simulation technologies to improve evacuation processes.

How Locate Global Can Help?
The Locate Global Platform is specifically designed to improve communication and incident identification in emergency situations. Speak to one of our team at info@locate.global.